{"id":7269,"date":"2008-11-01T09:26:02","date_gmt":"2008-11-01T09:26:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/127.0.0.1\/import\/?p=1269"},"modified":"2008-11-01T09:26:02","modified_gmt":"2008-11-01T09:26:02","slug":"verbatim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/econoclaste.eu\/econoclaste\/verbatim\/","title":{"rendered":"Verbatim"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u00ab\u00a0While Roubini and others who warned about weaknesses in the mortgage market and other parts of the financial system deserve credit for their foresight, experts predicted numerous disasters during the past several decades that never happened. For example, after the huge one-day stock market collapse in October 1987, Business Week and other magazines and newspapers warned that a Great Depression might soon be coming.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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I argued against that view in a column I published in Business Week the same week as the market crash (reprinted in The Economics of Life by Guity N. Becker and myself). These dire forecasts turned out to be completely wrong. Similar highly negative but wrong economic forecasts were made during the internet bubble, after the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 (on this see my post of September 21st), the aftermath of the 9\/11 attack, and after other periods of economic distress. In an atmosphere where the world economy showed great capacity to withstand difficult shocks, it is not at all surprising that some forecasts of disaster that turned out to be more correct were ignored<\/em>.<\/p>\n

In addition, one should not minimize the great economic achievements of the past 25 years in the form of rapid growth in world GDP, low world inflation, and low unemployment in most countries. Perhaps these achievements will be overshadowed by a deep world recession, but that remains to be seen. If the impact of this financial crisis on the real economy is not both very severe and very prolonged, and time will answer that question, the combination of the past 21\/2 decades of remarkable achievement, and the economic turbulence that followed, may still look good when placed in full historical perspective.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Gary Becker, Why the Warnings were Ignored: Too many False Alarms<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Mon commentaire : pour la premi\u00e8re partie et le message global de l’article, d’accord sur le principe. Cela dit, l’hommage \u00e0 Roubini est tordu. En gros, il le f\u00e9liciterait de la m\u00eame fa\u00e7on s’il avait gagn\u00e9 au loto. Ce qui n’est pas tr\u00e8s urbain entre universitaires. Concernant la seconde partie, je suis quasiment convaincu de l’argument de Becker en ce qui concerne les Etats-Unis. Pour d’autres r\u00e9gions, comme la n\u00f4tre, m\u00eame si c’est loin d’\u00eatre exclu, il faudra essayer de faire les comptes plus tard. Pour le moment, ce n’est pas la priorit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00ab\u00a0While Roubini and others who warned about weaknesses in the mortgage market and other parts of the financial system deserve credit for their foresight, experts predicted numerous disasters during the past several decades that never happened. For example, after the huge one-day stock market collapse in October 1987, Business Week (Lire la suite…)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7269","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ecoblabla"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/econoclaste.eu\/econoclaste\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7269","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/econoclaste.eu\/econoclaste\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/econoclaste.eu\/econoclaste\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/econoclaste.eu\/econoclaste\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/econoclaste.eu\/econoclaste\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7269"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/econoclaste.eu\/econoclaste\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7269\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/econoclaste.eu\/econoclaste\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7269"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/econoclaste.eu\/econoclaste\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7269"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/econoclaste.eu\/econoclaste\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7269"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}